VA

13

Electoral
College Votes

Opportunities

High-priority races with wins up & down the ballot

White House
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State Chambers
County and Citywide Races
Redistricting
Ballot Initiatives
Governor

The last legislative session was the first time Virginia had a Blue Trifecta governing majority in over 25 years. Because of this progressive power, Virginia power builders are passing groundbreaking legislation—the first Southern state to abolish the death penalty, pass a domestic bill of rights, and expand voting rights.

Yet this power hangs in the balance—4 seats were won in 2019 with less than 802 votes (802 votes in HD-85, 736 in HD-52, 506 in HD-75, and 27 in HD-83!) while one tied seat was decided by literally drawing a name out of a hat. There are another 4 seats lost by less than 1,000 votes (970 votes in HD-81, 881 in HD-100, 500 in HD-84, 189 in HD-27). While polls are showing that Democrats are more excited to vote in 2022 than Republicans, that cannot be taken for granted in Virginia—not only is Virginia seen as a bellwether for the nation’s mood with its off-off cycle elections in odd years, but these seats must be defended and progressives need to strengthen their numbers this coming year, and we have little idea what Democratic enthusiasm will look like in the post-Trump years. This is our chance to gauge that interest as we head into the historic 2022 Midterms.

While the balance of power is precarious at the state house level, organizing partners created the environment to flip with a thoughtful ten year plan that took advantage of shifting demographics and parlayed the national anti-Trump sentiment in 2017 and 2019 to create a durable statewide multiracial coalition. They must take that success statewide and continue to focus it in 2021 into individual districts. And, this success in leveraging cultural and electoral opportunities have brought them to where Virginia is today: more than one Black woman running in the most diverse gubernatorial primary in history; instate organizers are contesting for more, progressive power in the state legislature and constitutional offices; and a major goal is to expand the progressive footprint to state house districts not imagined viable ten years ago—requires another cycle of deep investment to secure a democratic majority for the foreseeable future.

UPDATE: Read our 2021 Pre-Election Analysis for Virginia, as well as 2020's Plan to Win documents.

members only | not a member? learn more

High-Priority Counties

2021 Approximate Statewide Numbers

Voter Turnout: This number is built on historic research and knowledge of the organizers instate. While this number is based on data, it must be noted that voter turnout in 2021 is dichotomous: a year with record enthusiasm in the electorate amidst clear, direct attacks on democracy—all while the COVID-19 pandemic is still impacting elections. | Win Number: Similar to the turnout number, the win number may be subject to change, although organizers instate are still preparing for record turnout due to high participation in the 2020 elections despite numerous obstacles. | Win Margins: Virginia Department of Elections results from 2019 and 2015 are from the House of Delegates’ races and 2017 from the Governor’s race.

*U.S. Census Bureau Quick Facts Population Estimates, July 1, 2019

**U.S. Census Bureau Citizen Voting Age Population Population November 15, 2016

***2020 CNN and The Washington Post Exit Polls

VA-Feature_2021

Partner Highlights

501c4 Organizations and PACs

A small sampling of some of the visionary groups Way to Win is proud to support and partner with. If you’re interested in learning more about our full slate, or if you’re a member and would like to report funds moved to any of our groups, please contact hello@waytowin.us.

Candidate Highlights

A small sampling of bold leaders in extremely competitive seats.

House of Delegates

Briana Sewell

HD-51

House of Delegates

Nancy Guy

HD-83

House of Delegates

Alex Askew

HD-85

The last legislative session was the first time Virginia had a Blue Trifecta governing majority in over 25 years. Because of this progressive power, Virginia power builders are passing groundbreaking legislation—the first Southern state to abolish the death penalty, pass a domestic bill of rights, and expand voting rights.

Yet this power hangs in the balance—4 seats were won in 2019 with less than 802 votes (802 votes in HD-85, 736 in HD-52, 506 in HD-75, and 27 in HD-83!) while one tied seat was decided by literally drawing a name out of a hat. There are another 4 seats lost by less than 1,000 votes (970 votes in HD-81, 881 in HD-100, 500 in HD-84, 189 in HD-27). While polls are showing that Democrats are more excited to vote in 2022 than Republicans, that cannot be taken for granted in Virginia—not only is Virginia seen as a bellwether for the nation’s mood with its off-off cycle elections in odd years, but these seats must be defended and progressives need to strengthen their numbers this coming year, and we have little idea what Democratic enthusiasm will look like in the post-Trump years. This is our chance to gauge that interest as we head into the historic 2022 Midterms.

While the balance of power is precarious at the state house level, organizing partners created the environment to flip with a thoughtful ten year plan that took advantage of shifting demographics and parlayed the national anti-Trump sentiment in 2017 and 2019 to create a durable statewide multiracial coalition. They must take that success statewide and continue to focus it in 2021 into individual districts. And, this success in leveraging cultural and electoral opportunities have brought them to where Virginia is today: more than one Black woman running in the most diverse gubernatorial primary in history; instate organizers are contesting for more, progressive power in the state legislature and constitutional offices; and a major goal is to expand the progressive footprint to state house districts not imagined viable ten years ago—requires another cycle of deep investment to secure a democratic majority for the foreseeable future.

UPDATE: Read our 2021 Pre-Election Analysis for Virginia, as well as 2020's Plan to Win documents.

members only | not a member? learn more

Opportunities

High-priority races with wins up & down the ballot

County and Citywide Races
Redistricting
Ballot Initiatives
Governor
White House
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State Chambers
County and Citywide Races
Redistricting
Ballot Initiatives
Governor

High-Priority Counties

2021 Approximate Statewide Numbers

Voter Turnout: This number is built on historic research and knowledge of the organizers instate. While this numbers is based on data, it must be remembered that voter turnout in 2021 is dichotomous record enthusiasm in the electorate while simultaneously being the year with clear, direct attacks on democracy—all while the COVID-19 pandemic is still impacting elections. | Win Number: Similar to the turnout number, the win number may be subject to change, although organizers instate are still preparing for record turnout due to high participation in the 2020 elections despite numerous obstacles. | Win Margins: Virginia Department of Elections results from 2019 and 2015 are from the House of Delegates’ races and 2017 from the Governor’s race.

Demographics

*U.S. Census Bureau Quick Facts Population Estimates, July 1, 2019

**U.S. Census Bureau Citizen Voting Age Population Population November 15, 2016

***2020 CNN and The Washington Post Exit Polls

VA-Feature_2021

Partner Highlights

501c4 Organizations and PACs

A small sampling of some of the visionary groups Way to Win is proud to support and partner with. If you’re interested in learning more about our full slate, or if you’re a member and would like to report funds moved to any of our groups, please contact hello@waytowin.us.

Candidate Highlights

A small sampling of bold leaders in extremely competitive seats.

House of Delegates, Hold

Briana Sewell

HD-51

House of Delegates, Hold

Nancy Guy

HD-83

House of Delegates, Hold

Alex Askew

HD-85